Marburg Virus Disease is a deadly hemorrhagic fever with limited tools available to predict patient outcomes or guide clinical decision-making. The 2024 outbreak in Rwanda, which resulted in 66 confirmed cases, provides a critical opportunity to develop data-driven solutions for future responses.

This project uses artificial intelligence and machine learning to predict disease severity and survival outcomes for Marburg Virus Disease. By analyzing clinical and demographic data from the 2024 Rwanda outbreak alongside published literature from previous outbreaks across Africa, the team will develop interpretable models to identify key risk factors and clinical intervention windows.

The project will also build an open-source framework to integrate future outbreak data, improve predictive accuracy, and support international collaboration. In parallel, it aims to strengthen AI capacity in Rwanda and provide structured mentorship for both Rwandan and Stanford-based researchers. Findings will inform outbreak preparedness through the development of clinical tools, data protocols, and targeted policy recommendations.

“Identifying the factors critical to the care of Marburg Virus Disease patients is of utmost importance. This work will not only improve health equity and resource stewardship, but also strengthen care for infected patients and build AI research capacity in Rwanda,” said Joseph Becker, an associate professor in the Stanford Department of Medicine and principal investigator on the project. He added, “Because many patients are healthcare providers, better clinical management will also help protect the health workforce—especially during outbreaks when systems are most strained.”

Principal Investigators:

Olivier Nsekuye, MSc Epi, MSc Data – Epidemiologist, Rwanda Biomedical Council

Joseph U. Becker, MD – Associate Professor, Department of Emergency Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine

Co-Investigators:

Brian Rice, MDCM, MSc, DTM&H – Associate Professor, Department of Emergency Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine

Edson Rwagasore, MBBS, MSc Epi – Manager of Public Health Surveillance, Rwanda Biomedical Council

Frederick Ntabana, MBBS – Rwanda Mpox Response Coordinator

Ryan Westergaard, MD, MPH, PhD – Professor of Medicine, Infectious Diseases, University of Wisconsin–Madison

Marissa Smith, MD – Fellow, Global Emergency Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine

Tsion Firew, MD, MPH, FACEP – Chair of Emergency Medicine, King Faisal Hospital / Africa Health Sciences University

Menelas Nkeshimana, MBBS, MSc – Head of Workforce Development, Ministry of Health, Rwanda

Anna Dobbins, MPH – Research Coordinator, King Faisal Hospital

Funder:

Stanford Department of Emergency Medicine