Mathematical modeling is increasingly used to guide cancer control policies, but most models assume ideal healthcare conditions and overlook the capacity limitations that many underserved settings face. This gap can lead to misguided decisions that fail to address real-world barriers to timely cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment.

This project aims to develop a cancer modeling framework that incorporates real-world constraints, including limited access to screening, diagnostic delays, and treatment bottlenecks. It focuses on two high-priority settings: the U.S., where recent legal challenges may restrict access to preventive mammography for women in their forties, and Mexico, where breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among women due to low screening coverage and delays in care.

The team will create tailored models for each context and a flexible framework that can be adapted globally to better inform cancer control strategies. By identifying critical intervention points and improving resource allocation, this work seeks to reduce disparities and improve breast cancer outcomes in underserved communities.

“What excites me about this research is its focus on identifying critical intervention points—from screening to diagnosis and treatment—in under-resourced healthcare settings in the US and Mexico,” says Melissa I. Franco-Galicia, Doctoral Candidate, Department of Health Policy, Stanford University School of Medicine. “By modeling real-world constraints across cancer types, we aim to create more effective, equitable health policy tools that reflect the realities faced by underserved populations.”

Principal Investigators:

Douglas Owens, MD, MS – Professor, Department of Health Policy, Stanford University School of Medicine

Melissa I. Franco-Galicia, MPH – Doctoral Candidate (4th year), Department of Health Policy, Stanford University School of Medicine

Co-Investigators:

Fernando Alarid-Escudero, PhD – Assistant Professor, Department of Health Policy, Stanford University School of Medicine

Joshua Salomon, PhD – Professor, Department of Health Policy, Stanford University School of Medicine

Research Team:

Karla Unger Saldana, MD – Health Systems Research Fellow, Mexican National Cancer Institute (INCAN)

Martin Lajous, MD, ScD – Faculty-Researcher, National Institute of Public Health in Mexico (INSP)

Funders:

Stanford School of Medicine Dean’s Office, Stanford Center for Innovation in Global Health