In Ethiopia, childhood diseases such as pneumonia, diarrhea, and malaria affect millions of children under five, contributing significantly to post-neonatal mortality. These diseases, directly influenced by climate conditions, are largely predictable, yet the Ethiopian health system currently can only detect surges after they begin, resulting in an insufficient response time for resource redistribution. This leaves children without medicine, oxygen, and other medical supplies, ultimately costing lives that could have otherwise been saved with timely intervention.

To address this public health challenge, Dr. Rishi Mediratta, MD, MSc, MA, Stanford clinical professor of pediatrics, Dr. Lulu Muhe, MD, PhD, professor of pediatrics and child health at Addis Ababa University, and Dr. Amanuel Moges Haile, MD, general practitioner at Addis Ababa University, will use this grant to develop an AI-driven early warning system.

This system aims to integrate a range of information, including routine surveillance data, climate information, and call center records, to provide advance warning to the Ethiopian Ministry of Health 1 to 4 weeks ahead of childhood disease surges. By forecasting these surges, health officials can prepare supplies at health facilities, and community health workers can reach the highest-risk households in time.

“We hope this research contributes to building health systems that are proactive rather than reactive, particularly in under-resourced settings that face growing climate-related threats to child health,” said Mediratta.

“Beyond Ethiopia, we hope this work demonstrates that artificial intelligence and machine learning tools can be co-developed and deployed with governments and integrated into existing public health infrastructure,” Mediratta continued. “Ultimately, we hope this research contributes to a future where childhood deaths from diseases like pneumonia, diarrhea, and malaria can be prevented through data-driven public health action.”

Principal Investigators:

Rishi Mediratta, MD, MSc, MA, Clinical Professor of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Department of Pediatrics

Lulu Muhe, MD, PhD, Professor of Pediatrics and Child Health, Addis Ababa University, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health

Amanuel Moges Haile, MD, General Practitioner, Addis Ababa University, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health

Research Team:

John Openshaw, MD, Assistant Professor of Medicine – Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Department of Medicine

Ivana Maric, PhD, Assistant Professor of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Department of Pediatrics

Erin Mordecai, PhD, Associate Professor of Biology and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences, Department of Biology

David Scheinker, PhD, Executive Director of Systems Design and Collaborative Research, Lucile Packard Children’s Hospital Stanford, Founder and Director of SURF Stanford Medicine, Clinical Professor of Medicine and Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Department of Pediatrics and Department of Medicine, and Adjunct Lecturer, Stanford University School of Engineering, Department of Management Science and Engineering

Mandefro Kebede, Surveillance and Disease Intelligence Division Head, Ethiopian Public Health Institute

Meles Solomon, Newborn and Child Health Desk Head, Maternal, Child and Adolescent Health Service Lead Executive Office, Federal Ministry of Health Ethiopia

Gemechis Melkamu, Digital Health Lead Executive Officer, Federal Ministry of Health Ethiopia

Tobistiya Woldemariam Hirpa, MD, Research Coordinator, Addis Ababa University, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health

Yaecob Girmay Gezahegn, PhD Candidate in Health Technologies, Addis Ababa Institute of Technology and HAWK University of Applied Sciences & Arts

Henok Tadesse Bireda, MD, MPH, Researcher, Center for Public Health Emergency Management, Ethiopian Public Health Institute

Awgichew Kifle, Lecturer of Biostatistics, Addis Ababa University, School of Public Health

Shegaw Mulu Tarekegn, Senior Health Information Systems and M&E advisor, Strategic Affairs Executive Office, Federal Ministry of Health Ethiopia

Caroline Glidden, PhD, Postdoctoral Fellow, Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences, Department of Biology

Kushal Patel, Stanford University undergraduate

Krish Shah, Stanford University School of Medicine MD student

Funders:

Stanford Center for Innovation in Global Health

Stanford Maternal and Child Health Research Institute