Malaria is spread by Anopheles mosquitoes carrying the Plasmodium parasite. Its risk to local communities can vary dramatically based on seasonal and climate-driven changes in rainfall and temperature, along with other cultural and economic factors. Understanding the relationship between malaria, weather, and other factors can be a powerful tool for local policymakers and healthcare leaders to inform malaria control strategies.

A team of Stanford-led researchers and their Kenyan colleagues have shed light on the empirical relationship of temperature and precipitation on the temporal population dynamics of symptomatic malaria cases in Kenyan children.

Between 2014-2022, the researchers found 1882 children presenting with fevers in the coastal city of Ukunda and the western city of Kisumu in Kenya and explored the relationship between incident malaria cases and temperature and precipitation.

They found that cases of malaria increased along with rising rainfall totals in both cities, but that the relationship between temperature patterns and malaria was more complex. In Ukunda, the correlation between rising temperature and malaria cases peaked at 26-27°C, whereas in Kisumu, the relationship remained steady between 22-30°C.

Understanding the relationship between malaria cases and changing rain and temperature patterns can help local policymakers strategize malaria control policies such as providing mosquito nets, applying mosquito repellents and utilizing mosquito could during seasons of peak malaria transmission.

Read the publication.